Macro backdrop: Fed cut, strong dollar, and BOJ drama keep crypto in ‘risk-on probation’

The Fed’s 25 bp rate cut and record-high global M2 have historically favored risk assets, but Yardeni Research notes the U.S. dollar still dominates global finance and carry trades, limiting a clean tailwind for crypto. Additional uncertainty around a potential BOJ rate hike and rising geopolitical tensions has left traders cautious, with several strategists, including CMC’s research head, now eyeing Q1 2026 as the more likely window for the next broad-based crypto bull leg.